Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS65 KPUB 092010
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
210 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming through the week, with a daily shot of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain.

- Above normal temperatures and much drier for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Currently...As was advertised, isolated showers and thunderstorms
have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon, with the
focus area over the southern mts and southern portions of the San
Luis Valley. Storm movement has been to the south-southeast, and one
or two storms either have already, or have the potential to, get
strong enough to produce hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind
gusts to 60 mph. Temps as of 2 pm have warmed into the 70s to
around 80F for most locations.

Tonight through Tuesday night...Upper ridge of high pressure over
the western US currently will gradually flatten a bit and slide to
the east, shifting the flow across CO to a weaker west-to northwest
direction. Ongoing convection this afternoon is forecast to finally
end by 10 or 11 PM, as per the HRRR. Overnight lows are expected to
cool into the 40s for the high valleys, and lower to mid 50s for the
plains.

Tomorrow will likely be a near repeat across the region with respect
to afternoon and evening convection over the higher terrain, but
westerly flow aloft and a southerly wind flow at the surface will
help bump temps to around 80F for the high valleys, and mid 80s to
around 90F for the plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop by around 11 AM over the higher terrain, then
finally diminish by 9 or 10 PM. Hi-res models indicate minimal shear
tomorrow as well as lacking CAPE, so any storms that do develop are
not expected to go severe, and SPC has just the higher terrain and
adjacent plains in a General area for thunderstorms. Overnight low
temps tomorrow night will dip into the 40s for the high valleys, but
the plains will be slightly more mild with readings in the 50s to
near 60F. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Wednesday-Friday...Flow aloft becomes generally light westerly
as the ridge is flattened by weak waves translating across the
Northern Tier through the end of the work week. Latest model
data continues to support enough moisture for afternoon and
evening showers and storms through this period, with the best
coverage over and near the higher terrain Wednesday and
Thursday. However, with the generally weak flow aloft, storms
are not expected to be severe. Temperatures are looking be
closer to seasonal levels through this period, with highs
warming into the 80s to lower 90s across the plains, into the
80s across the high valleys and mainly in 60s and 70s across
higher terrain. Low temperatures look to be in the 50s to low
60s across plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the
higher terrain.

Saturday and Sunday...Upper level ridging remains progged to
build back across the Rockies through the weekend, with a large
595DM upper high in place across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies. Operational and ensemble model data support
much drier air moving across the region within generally weak
southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to
warming and drying trend into early next week, with temperatures
warming to above seasonal levels in the mid 80s to mid 90s
across the plains and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher
terrain. Shower and storm chances decrease through the period,
with any storms that can develop being high based.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Isolated to low-end scattered convection expected over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with a focus on the southern mts that will
likely infringe on KALS. Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated for
much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs.

KALS: Mentioned VCTS starting at 20z with TEMPO group for thunder
20z-24z. Intermittent MVFR cigs, vsby and variable wind gusts to 25
kt with thunder through 24z, otherwise VFR conditions.

KCOS & KPUB: VFR conditions through the forecast period. Surface
winds will generally be diurnal in direction and <15 kts, but there
is a low potential for isolated mt convection producing higher
variable gusts through 01z. Confidence is low so did not include
these in TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE/MW
AVIATION...MOORE