Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS65 KPUB 310522
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers over the next couple days for the mountains
  with heaviest accumulations Monday Night and Tuesday along the
  Continental Divide.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Monday, Tuesday and
  Wednesday for portions of the San Luis Valley and southeast
  plains with the most volatile day expected Tuesday.

- Damaging winds and blowing dust possible for the San Luis
  Valley and southeast plains along and south of highway 50 for
  Tuesday.

- Potentially potent system impacting the area starting Friday,
  and continuing through the weekend before moving out of the
  area late Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The active weather pattern will continue through the short term
with the next shortwave moving across the area this evening
sparking another round of showers and perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm or two across northern portions of the southeast
plains this evening. Main risk will be brief moderate to heavy
rainfall and perhaps some small graupel with any of the stronger
cores. This may be due more to cold air aloft as surface
heating has been tempered significantly by persistent cloud
cover across the plains this afternoon which has limited CAPE in
SPC Mesoanalysis to up to 250 J/kg at best. Activity will
spread eastward towards the CO/KS border overnight with
southeast upslope flow bringing a return of stratus/low clouds
and fog to the plains. El Paso county will be most prone to fog
tonight into Monday morning where upslope flow will be
maximized.

Monday will mark the beginning of a windy and dry period for the
lower elevation. Winds increase aloft on Monday with critical
fire weather conditions still on target for the San Luis Valley,
southern I-25 corridor counties and adjacent plains. Southwest
winds will take the longest to mix eastward into Pueblo county
and the adjacent plains, but high res models do show a 2-3 hour
window during the late afternoon and early evening for critical
fire weather potential, so will maintain current Red Flags as is.

Upper low sags southward across the western US Monday night and
Tuesday sending a Pacific moisture feed into the Continental
Divide and bringing a wave of moderate to heavy snow into the
Continental Divide late Monday night and Tuesday with some spill
over into the Sangre De Cristos. We will probably need some
advisories for this event across the Sawatch and Mosquito
ranges, though uncertainty is a little higher for the eastern
San Juans where moisture depth is still a little uncertain.
Will hold off on winter highlights for now in concert with
neighbor offices to the north and west until timing and area
details become more certain. Of greater concern is the potential
for high winds and critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday
as the upper jet ejects across southern CO with this system. NBM
probabilities range from 40-75% for wind gusts in excess of 58
mph across the southern plains and San Luis Valley roughly along
and south of highway 50. Model cross-sections do not look
supportive of a mountain wave, but deep mixing in the afternoon
and a tight surface pressure gradient as the surface low ejects
eastward into KS looks supportive of high wind criteria even
from broad conceptual models. Suspect probabilities will
increase further as this event gets resolved by more HREF
members. Have issued high wind watches for the San Luis Valley
and most of the southeast plains. Give the lack of favorable
mountain wave parameters, have left the higher elevations out
for now. Fremont county could get close to high wind criteria as
well, but models seem to be trending southward with the upper
jet, so have kept the high wind watch area conservative on the
northern extent for now. Needless to say, gusts up to 50 to 65
mph along with humidities in the 10-15% range will lead to
volatile conditions for fire spread. Fire Weather Watches are
already posted for the plains on Tuesday and still look on
target. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wednesday and Thursday:
Trough begins to develop over the western
United States, with several waves of energy that will move across
the area. This will bring snow showers over the central mountains
with rain chances over the plains. Rain chances over the plains will
be greatest Thursday morning, as a wave of energy moves through. As
for temperatures, we should see at/below seasonal values across the
plains both days. The mountain valleys will also see temperatures
below normal for both days, with values in the 45-50 degree range.

Winds will be gusty Wednesday afternoon across the mountain valleys
and plains. For the San Luis Valley, wind gusts could reach 30-40kts
and 25-30kts across the plains. With gusty winds and RH values below
15%, there will once again be another high fire danger day.

Friday and Saturday:

A potent system looks to develop to our southwest on Friday, and
begins to slowly push eastward throughout the weekend. As of now,
the NBM is showing QPF amounts in excess of an inch, and light snow
amounts across the plains. The big question will be precip type, as
guidance shows 700mb temperatures between negative 5-10 degrees
celsius. If temperatures trend a little cooler and it falls as snow,
significant snow amounts could be expected across the plains/higher
elevations. With the uncertainties in regards to surface/700mb
temperatures, it is just too early to say for sure what rain/snow
amounts are expected. Stay tuned for updated forecasts for a
potentially significant system at the end of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

KALS

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours. main issued
will be gusty winds tomorrow afternoon.

KCOS

Main issue will be the potential for low cigs/br bringing MVFR/IFR
conditions tonight into tomorow morning. VFR will develop by mid to
late morning with gusty southerly winds developing.

KPUB

A period of MVFR conditions expected later tonight into tomorrow
morning then VFR after mid morning. Winds becoming gusty from the
southwest then west tomorrow afternoon

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ224-
228>230-232-233.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ069>071-086>088-093-094-097>099.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ228>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...HODANISH